Randomness is the opponent traders need to overcome in order to make a profit. In the short term, market movements are random, and the outcome of each trade is also random. But in the long run, if you can overcome that randomness and trade with a constant edge over and over again, you can master the randomness and make a profit.


Randomness can be extremely dangerous in trading and speculating in the market when it is believed that success in the market is due to the ability to predict the future. In fact, quite the opposite, the market is an unpredictable entity, all predictions are likely to be wrong by randomness in the short term. There are millions of random variables that lead to market movement, and if you try to find 100 reasons for the price to go up, sometimes the price only needs 1 reason to fall. Trying to predict the future is pointless and does not help traders make a profit.


In fact, the best speculators in the market all assert that predicting the future does not help them to make money. Martin Weig says, “have found that investors who rely on oracles often fail miserably.” George Soros said: “My success in speculation is the exact opposite of my ability to predict the future…in the financial markets. My forecasts are much worse than you think.” And according to Larry Hite: “… my investment strategy has never depended on predicting the future. When you start to believe that you have the ability to predict the future, you will be in trouble. Never forget that no one can predict the future.”


While a professional trader can have a losing trade because of randomness, a new trader can also win because of luck. However, in the long run after a large enough series of transactions, randomness or luck will no longer be valid, professional players will still be the winners. All because they beat randomness and always kept an advantage in this game.

How to master randomness? There are the following simple steps:

1. Find a trading system that has an edge and can make a profit in the long run
2. Trade according to that system and strictly respect its order entry rules tắc
3. Keep your loss orders small by calculating order volume
4. Take profits for a long time so that the winning orders are always many times larger than the losing orders. These orders will cover loss orders and residual profits

If traders can follow the steps above, then randomness won't be an issue anymore, and profit in the long term is certain.