1. LONG-TERM TECHNICAL FACTORS:

On the chart, we can extract the following main ideas:
  • Gold price after breaking out of a "round bottom" base area, the uptrend is dominating.
  • Gold price broke the highest peak around 1900$ and is currently correcting.
From my trading and speculative point of view, I really like assets that are approaching and breaking old tops. Because the time when the price approaches the old peak is also the time when the price is ready to conquer new highs. Combined with the observations outlined above, I estimate there will be an accumulation pattern around the current price for Gold, before continuing the trend!

2. BASIC FACTORS:

The fundamental factors that positively affect the price of Gold can be summed up with the following contents:
  • Monetary and fiscal stimulus solutions make the USD lose its purchasing power.
  • Low real interest rate
  • Inflation soars.
  • Risk factors from disease
  • Double recession is hanging in front of our eyes!
  • Unforeseen risk events.
  • Attention is shifting to Bitcoin, but when Bitcoin returns to "real value", Gold will return as it remains a government-backed asset "guaranteed" by National reserves.
In recent days, the US government bond yields have increased and the "exit" of QTF funds is continuing to create a correction wave in the Gold price. However, in an unpredictable environment like the present, anything can happen, and the return of Gold price is absolutely bright!

3. PERSONAL SPECIFICATION AND TRADING STRATEGY:

With the perceived prospects, the following strategies for yourself, you can refer to and consider:
  1. Buy physical Gold when you have idle money (you can deduct a small part of your income) around the price range of VND 50-55 million/tael and hold it for a long time.
  2. It is possible to sell short with CFDs or futures on a short-term downtrend, but consider this as a surf and consider taking profits when enough (Fix previous sell orders when Gold price is moving around the $1760 Support area.
  3. Ready to wait for breakout signals to buy with CFDs or futures contracts.